Cipher Digital (CIFR)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Cipher Digital Misses Q4 But Locks In $9.3B in HPC Contracts

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Cipher Digital (NASDAQ: CIFR) reported Q4 2025 results that missed on both the top and bottom line, but the headline numbers obscure the real story: this is a company deliberately exiting Bitcoin mining to become an HPC data center operator with $9.3 billion in contracted revenue.

The company officially rebranded from Cipher Mining Inc. to Cipher Digital Inc. on February 20, 2026, completing a transformation that began with its landmark AWS and Google data center deals last year.

Did Cipher Digital Beat Earnings?

No. Q4 2025 results missed consensus across the board:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus estimates.

The massive GAAP net loss of $734 million includes significant non-cash items: $410 million change in warrant liability, $96 million loss on miners held for sale, $45 million impairment of long-lived assets, and $29 million from miner disposals. Strip those out and the adjusted loss was $54.5 million, still elevated but reflecting the deliberate wind-down costs.

Revenue declined 17% sequentially from $71.7M in Q3 2025 as mining operations contracted. Bitcoin mining revenue for the full year totaled $223.9M, up 48% from $151.3M in FY2024, but Q4 marked the inflection point as HPC takes over.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

The transformation accelerated dramatically in Q4:

Bitcoin Mining Wind-Down:

• Operating hashrate dropped from 23.6 EH/s to 11.6 EH/s
• Divested 49% stake in Alborz, Bear, and Chief joint venture sites (340 MW) to Canaan in an all-stock transaction
• All Black Pearl mining rigs redeployed to Odessa or marked for sale
• ~1,166 BTC remaining as of Feb 20; plan to "likely exit entirely by end of 2026"
• Odessa continues mining at 207 MW with fleet efficiency of 17.2 J/TH

HPC Data Center Build-Out:

• AWS lease upsized and finalized (300 MW, 15-year term, ~$5.5B)
• Fluidstack/Google lease expanded (300 MW, 10-year term, ~$3.8B)
• $2.0B bond issued for Black Pearl at 6.125%—100bps tighter than prior issue, signaling improved credit perception
• $1.73B bond issued for Barber Lake at 7.125%
• Black Pearl bond was 6.5x oversubscribed with ~$13B in orders across 200+ accounts
• Acquired Ulysses site in Ohio (200 MW)

What Did Management Say?

CEO Tyler Page framed Q4 as the culmination of a strategic shift:

"2025 was a defining year for Cipher. Over the past 12 months, we completed a deliberate and disciplined transformation of the company. From a Bitcoin miner with sourcing and development expertise into a digital infrastructure company, purpose-built to deliver hyperscale compute."

"This rebrand represents far more than a new name or visual identity. It marks a complete transition to a business centered on stable, long-duration cash flows and long-term leases with best-in-class hyperscalers."

On the transformation economics:

"What's important here is not just the magnitude of growth, but the predictability. These are contracted revenues tied to mission-critical infrastructure with multiyear lease terms and extension options. That level of visibility fundamentally changes the entire profile of this company."

The key message: Bitcoin mining misses don't matter when you have $9.3 billion in contracted HPC revenue ramping in 2026.

What Did Management Guide?

No explicit revenue guidance was provided, but the contracted economics tell the story:

Average annualized NOI from these contracts is projected at ~$669 million over the base lease terms.

Contracted NOI Ramp (2026-2035):

The development pipeline extends to 2,370 MW across six additional sites targeting energization through 2028+.

How Is the Balance Sheet?

The capital structure changed dramatically with project financing:

Corporate liquidity stood at $754 million as of December 31, 2025, including $628M cash and $125M in Bitcoin at ~$87,600/BTC. By February 20, 2026, this increased to $860M ($781M cash + $79M BTC at ~$67,800).

The debt is predominantly project-level, non-recourse financing:

• $1.73B Cipher Compute LLC notes (Ba3/BB-, 7.125%, Nov 2030)
• $173M convertible notes (1.75%, May 2030)
• $1.3B convertible notes (0%, Oct 2031)

How Did the Stock React?

CIFR closed at $15.22 on February 23, up 6.9% heading into earnings. The aftermarket reaction was negative, with shares trading down to $14.54 (-4.5%) following the Q4 release.

Recent Performance:

• 52-week high: $25.52
• 52-week low: $1.86
• YTD 2026: Down ~19% from January highs
• 1-year return: Up ~300% from ~$3.50 in Feb 2024

The stock has been volatile alongside Bitcoin and the broader digital infrastructure sector. The AWS and Google deals drove a significant re-rating in late 2025, but Bitcoin's recent decline to ~$65,000 and elevated interest rates have pressured the name.

What's the Development Pipeline?

Beyond the contracted 600 MW, Cipher has 2,370 MW in development:

Additionally, a signed MOU with Barber Lake contemplates an additional 500 MW adjacent to the current site, expected 2030+.

Q&A Highlights

Stingray Lease Progress: CEO Tyler Page confirmed Cipher is in "advanced lease negotiations" with a "preferred partner" at Stingray. "You're never done until you're done, but we do have an anticipated tenant there, and I think that will be done reasonably soon if everything stays on track." The 100 MW Texas site is fully interconnection-approved with substation development underway.

Ulysses Hyperscaler Interest: Multiple hyperscalers are conducting due diligence on Ulysses, the 200 MW Ohio site acquired in December. "We have multiple hyperscalers in data rooms doing their diligence, beginning thinking about engineering discussions." The site benefits from being one of the "last legacy interconnection agreements in PJM without a large deposit."

Reveille Different Strategy: The 70 MW Reveille site may go to a neo-cloud rather than hyperscaler. "That 70 megawatts, that's a more interesting site for a different crowd... there is a lot of desire for neoclouds to be successful." Management is exploring credit wrappers and prepayments to maintain counterparty quality.

ERCOT Regulatory Changes: Cipher hired Lee Bratcher as Head of Policy to navigate Texas regulatory changes. Management views the new ERCOT batch study process as "a good thing for serious operators and developers" that will clear speculative projects from the queue.

Behind-the-Meter Expansion: Hyperscalers are increasingly interested in behind-the-meter generation solutions. "All of the hyperscalers are also looking at behind-the-meter solutions now as a way to faster power." Cipher has "some of our best resources dedicated to investigating it now" and is "personally very bullish that that will be a major part of our portfolio over time."

Odessa Flexibility: The 207 MW Odessa mining site operates at ~$0.028/kWh through July 2027. Management is negotiating with Luminant on potential PPA extension or HPC conversion. "If we can herd all those cats and make it happen sooner rather than later, that's great... there's not a ton of time pressure because the Bitcoin economics there are still really, really strong."

Construction Progress

Barber Lake (Fluidstack/Google): Construction is well advanced with concrete foundations poured, structural steel going vertical, and MEP work commenced. Key milestones:

• 95% of long-lead equipment secured with delivery schedules aligned
• 100% of workforce secured across all critical work streams
• 400+ personnel on-site daily
• Project on schedule for early access and substantial completion milestones

Black Pearl (AWS): Engineering, procurement, and construction activities underway. Bitcoin mining decommissioning completed this week. Approximately 85% of existing infrastructure will be repurposed for the AWS lease, "meaningfully reducing execution risk and improving capital efficiency."

What Are the Key Risks?

1. Execution Risk: Delivering 600 MW of HPC capacity on schedule is complex. Any delays could impact rent commencement and NOI ramp.

2. Leverage: Total debt of $2.75B against $806M equity creates meaningful financial risk, though project-level non-recourse structure limits corporate exposure.

3. Bitcoin Exposure: While de-emphasizing mining, Cipher still holds ~$79-125M in BTC and operates the 207 MW Odessa site through July 2027.

4. Hyperscaler Concentration: Revenue will be highly concentrated with AWS and Google/Fluidstack as primary tenants.

5. Interest Rates: The high-yield bonds carry 6-7% coupons; any refinancing in a higher rate environment increases costs.

The Bottom Line

Cipher Digital's Q4 2025 was a "miss" in the traditional sense—revenue and earnings fell short of estimates. But that framing misses the point entirely. This is a company that:

• Rebranded to reflect its new identity as an HPC platform
• Secured $9.3B in contracted revenue with AWS and Google
• Raised $3.73B in project financing at attractive terms
• Built a 2,370 MW development pipeline for future growth
• Positioned for ~$669M average annual NOI starting Oct 2026

The Q4 results represent the final chapter of Cipher Mining. The chapters ahead are about Cipher Digital—a company with contracted cash flows, hyperscaler tenants, and a clear path to profitability. The near-term mining losses are noise; the signal is the $9.3 billion in HPC contracts.

Investors now wait for the August 2026 rent commencement at Black Pearl. That's when the transformation thesis gets validated with real dollars.

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Related:

• Cipher Digital Company Page
• Q3 2025 Earnings Transcript
• Latest 8-K Filing